the short fuse 
15-03-2024 17:02
15-03-2024 17:02
Can Arsenal Women keep slim title hopes alive?
Last week, after Arsenal Women blitzed Aston Villa with four first half goals to seal a place in the Conti Cup final, Lia Wälti and then Jonas Eidevall referenced the men’s team, who of course had scored 5 first half goals against Sheffield United. “We watched the men’s game a couple of days ago and we all said we would like to be more comfortable at half time. We said we wanted to be on them from the start and run them over.”
It was significant, because Arsenal have not had a lot of sharp first halves this season. Facing more deep blocks, Arsenal have struggled, often making games far more comfortable if not outright safe in the second half. There have, been, though, two games where Arsenal have had comfortable leads at half time. Both of those games, the 3-1 win against Manchester United (3-0 at halftime) and the 4-1 win over Chelsea (3-1 at halftime) were at the Emirates, but also both were against top 3 rivals who Arsenal were able to counterpress and counter attack against effectively. As a result, Arsenal ended up with an xG of 3.0 in both games, the 2nd and 3rd highest of the season, with Arsenal only generating more xG in the win against Leicester City.
Arsenal have not beaten Chelsea away from home since 2018-19, when in October Arsenal went to Kingsmeadow and won 5-0. It was a statement win in a season where Arsenal would win the title, losing only twice. Since then, Arsenal’s only positive result away from home against Chelsea is a 0-0 draw in the 2021-22 season. Arsenal lost in the league at Kingsmeadow towards the end of last season, and lost in the FA Cup, and were handily beaten at Kingsmeadow twice by Chelsea in Montemurro’s final season. This season, though, Chelsea are hosting Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are playing more matches at Stamford Bridge, but undoubtedly prefer Kingsmeadow.
Arsenal enter the weekend three points behind Chelsea and Manchester City, with a vastly inferior goal difference. To remain in the title race, Arsenal have to at least get a point, though given the inferior goal difference, and given that Arsenal have to go to Manchester City, while Chelsea have no games left against this season’s top 3, Arsenal could be in a position where realistically they have to win. Arsenal are in this position in part because of losses against Liverpool, Tottenham, and West Ham, all games which Arsenal should’ve done better in, but the last away win at Kingsmeadow looms large. Since Jonas Eidevall has taken over at Arsenal, Arsenal generally do well in big games: Arsenal beat Chelsea and Manchester City at home in 2021-22, and have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City at home this season. But Arsenal have not won away at either City or Chelsea in some time. For Arsenal to win the league, they have to make that leap.
The men’s team found itself in a similar position earlier this season. Arsenal lost the league last season because Arsenal lost twice to Manchester City. Arsenal beat Manchester City at the Emirates earlier this season. Arsenal then found themselves on the outside of the title race when Liverpool came to the Emirates in February; Arsenal won, convincingly, and put themselves right back in the title race. The men’s first team were able to win the games they had to, to make the leap into winning matches against title rivals. The women’s first team have been able to do so at home, but can they make the leap and win away?
At the very least, Arsenal should have the team in better injury condition. Chelsea are without Sam Kerr and Millie Bright, and might be without Mayra Ramirez. Arsenal have almost all of their first choice lineup available, with Emily Fox and Cloé Lacasse, who could start, back from Gold Cup duty. Chelsea have a Champions League game next week, while Arsenal only have this, and the Conti Cup final at the end of March (against Chelsea) to focus on. In the final league match against Emma Hayes, it is within Arsenal’s hands to deliver a telling blow.
It was significant, because Arsenal have not had a lot of sharp first halves this season. Facing more deep blocks, Arsenal have struggled, often making games far more comfortable if not outright safe in the second half. There have, been, though, two games where Arsenal have had comfortable leads at half time. Both of those games, the 3-1 win against Manchester United (3-0 at halftime) and the 4-1 win over Chelsea (3-1 at halftime) were at the Emirates, but also both were against top 3 rivals who Arsenal were able to counterpress and counter attack against effectively. As a result, Arsenal ended up with an xG of 3.0 in both games, the 2nd and 3rd highest of the season, with Arsenal only generating more xG in the win against Leicester City.
Arsenal have not beaten Chelsea away from home since 2018-19, when in October Arsenal went to Kingsmeadow and won 5-0. It was a statement win in a season where Arsenal would win the title, losing only twice. Since then, Arsenal’s only positive result away from home against Chelsea is a 0-0 draw in the 2021-22 season. Arsenal lost in the league at Kingsmeadow towards the end of last season, and lost in the FA Cup, and were handily beaten at Kingsmeadow twice by Chelsea in Montemurro’s final season. This season, though, Chelsea are hosting Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are playing more matches at Stamford Bridge, but undoubtedly prefer Kingsmeadow.
Arsenal enter the weekend three points behind Chelsea and Manchester City, with a vastly inferior goal difference. To remain in the title race, Arsenal have to at least get a point, though given the inferior goal difference, and given that Arsenal have to go to Manchester City, while Chelsea have no games left against this season’s top 3, Arsenal could be in a position where realistically they have to win. Arsenal are in this position in part because of losses against Liverpool, Tottenham, and West Ham, all games which Arsenal should’ve done better in, but the last away win at Kingsmeadow looms large. Since Jonas Eidevall has taken over at Arsenal, Arsenal generally do well in big games: Arsenal beat Chelsea and Manchester City at home in 2021-22, and have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, and Manchester City at home this season. But Arsenal have not won away at either City or Chelsea in some time. For Arsenal to win the league, they have to make that leap.
The men’s team found itself in a similar position earlier this season. Arsenal lost the league last season because Arsenal lost twice to Manchester City. Arsenal beat Manchester City at the Emirates earlier this season. Arsenal then found themselves on the outside of the title race when Liverpool came to the Emirates in February; Arsenal won, convincingly, and put themselves right back in the title race. The men’s first team were able to win the games they had to, to make the leap into winning matches against title rivals. The women’s first team have been able to do so at home, but can they make the leap and win away?
At the very least, Arsenal should have the team in better injury condition. Chelsea are without Sam Kerr and Millie Bright, and might be without Mayra Ramirez. Arsenal have almost all of their first choice lineup available, with Emily Fox and Cloé Lacasse, who could start, back from Gold Cup duty. Chelsea have a Champions League game next week, while Arsenal only have this, and the Conti Cup final at the end of March (against Chelsea) to focus on. In the final league match against Emma Hayes, it is within Arsenal’s hands to deliver a telling blow.